Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Change | 25bp | 25bp | 0bp |
Level | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.10% |
Highlights
In the statement accompanying today's decision, officials judged that"inflation has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago". The most recent monthly CPI data showed an increase in headline inflation from 5.2 percent in August to 5.6 percent in September. Although officials retain their assessment that inflation will fall over the next two years, they now expect that decline will be slightly more gradual. CPI inflation is now expected to be around 3.5 percent at end-2024, up from their previous forecast of 3.3 percent, and to be"at the top of the target range" by the end of 2025, compared with a previous forecast of 2.9 percent. Officials highlighted several uncertainties relating to the inflation outlook.
Officials also acknowledged risks to the growth outlook, with the outlook for consumer spending considered to be particularly uncertain. But they noted that economic growth so far this year has been stronger than they had expected and that conditions in the labour market remain strong.
After previously judging that they required more information to assess the impact of previous rate hikes before tightening further, officials today concluded that they now have enough information to make such a move. Returning inflation to its target range remains officials' top priority and risks to the inflation outlook are clearly their major concern at present. Their statement concluded by noting that they"will do what is necessary" to achieve their objective, and they advised that further tightening may be required.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The RBA is unique among the central banks - it has two boards with complementary responsibilities. The Reserve Bank Board is responsible for monetary policy and overall financial system stability. The Payments System Board has specific responsibility for the safety and efficiency of the payments system.
The RBA sets an interest rate at which it lends to financial institutions. This interest rate then affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the price of financial assets, such as bonds and shares, and the exchange rate, which affect consumer and business demand in a variety of ways. Lowering or raising interest rates affects spending in the economy.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.