| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| Year over Year | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
Highlights
Canadian growth edged up 0.1 percent in September, above expectations of a stalling activity.
Real gross domestic product by industry contracted 0.1 percent in the third quarter.
The economy started the fourth quarter with a 0.2 percent advance in October, according to preliminary estimates, led by gains in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, retail trade, and construction. Wholesale trade decreased over the month.
In September, goods-producing industries were up 0.3 percent after decreasing 0.5 percent in August, and services were flat after edging up 0.1 percent.
Within goods-producing industries, manufacturing activity increased 0.9 percent, with non-durables up 0.8 percent and durables up 0.9 percent. Construction rose 1.0 percent, while mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction fell 1.8 percent, with energy overall down 1.1 percent on the month. Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent after declining 0.6 percent the previous month. The agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting sector decreased 1.4 percent.
Within services, seven sectors posted gains, including a 0.5 percent advance in wholesale trade, a 0.3 percent increase in retail trade and and a 0.6 percent rise in accommodation and food services. Public administration was up 0.1 percent. On the downside, real estate and rental and leasing contracted 0.1 percent, finance and insurance fell 0.3 percent, and arts, entertainment and recreation were down 2.1 percent.
Real gross domestic product by industry contracted 0.1 percent in the third quarter.
The economy started the fourth quarter with a 0.2 percent advance in October, according to preliminary estimates, led by gains in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, retail trade, and construction. Wholesale trade decreased over the month.
In September, goods-producing industries were up 0.3 percent after decreasing 0.5 percent in August, and services were flat after edging up 0.1 percent.
Within goods-producing industries, manufacturing activity increased 0.9 percent, with non-durables up 0.8 percent and durables up 0.9 percent. Construction rose 1.0 percent, while mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction fell 1.8 percent, with energy overall down 1.1 percent on the month. Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent after declining 0.6 percent the previous month. The agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting sector decreased 1.4 percent.
Within services, seven sectors posted gains, including a 0.5 percent advance in wholesale trade, a 0.3 percent increase in retail trade and and a 0.6 percent rise in accommodation and food services. Public administration was up 0.1 percent. On the downside, real estate and rental and leasing contracted 0.1 percent, finance and insurance fell 0.3 percent, and arts, entertainment and recreation were down 2.1 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
After no change in August, GDP in September is expected unchanged again. The last time monthly activity expanded was in May 2023.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.
Description
Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.
