Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
CPI - M/M | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
CPI - Y/Y | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% |
Core CPI - M/M | 0.5% | -0.1% | |
Core CPI - Y/Y | 3.4% | 3.2% |
Highlights
While inflation measures excluding food and energy increased year-over-year, the Bank of Canada's own core measures reflected further easing of inflationary pressures. All three measures slowed down for the second consecutive month, to average 3.8 percent in October after 4.0 percent in September and 4.3 percent in August. Currently, Econoday's Relative Performance Index is consistent with a stable monetary policy.
Overall, the data show improvement but the rise in the core index excluding food and energy is a reminder that the central bank's work is far from over. That being said, with a projection of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the 3.1 percent headline reading provides some room to take some time to assess the impact of past rate hikes.
Food prices were down 0.1 percent on the month and rose 5.6 percent year-over-year, and energy fell 4.6 percent from September and 5.4 percent from a year earlier. The monthly CPI decrease was led by a 0.8 percent drop in goods prices, while services increased 0.9 percent. On a 12-month basis, the two categories rose, by 1.6 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively.
Half of the eight main components were up on the month, while three decreased: transportation was down 1.4 percent, led by a 6.4 percent drop in gasoline prices, and like food, health and personal care edged down 0.1 percent. Gasoline was the largest downward contributor, followed by traveller accommodation and electricity. The main upward contributors to the monthly CPI were travel tours (up 11.1 percent), property taxes and other special charges (up 4.9 percent), followed by mortgage interest cost (2.5 percent) and rent (1.4 percent).
On a 12-month basis, five of eight components increased. Mortgage interest costs (up 30.5 percent) and rent (up 8.2 percent) were the largest upward contributors, while gasoline (down 7.8 percent) and telephone services (down 14.1 percent) were the largest downward contributors.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the headline CPI was down 0.1 percent after rising 0.1 percent in September, while the core index was up 0.3 percent after 0.2 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses the CPI and three measures of the underlying rate as the prime inflation indicators. Markets also look at core rate which excludes food and energy.