| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | -0.49 | 0.02 | -0.02 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Highlights
The Chicago Fed national activity index is down to minus 0.49 in October after a downward revision to minus 0.02 in September. The index is below minus 0.12 in October 2022. The report noted that"all four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions in October". The three-month moving average is down to minus 0.22 in October after 0.00 (neutral) in September.
It is likely that the UAW strike contributed noticeably to the lower reading in October. Production-related indicators made a minus 0.33 contribution in October after minus 0.04 in September. This was a much larger decline than in other broad categories. Employment indicators contributed minus 0.10 in October after plus 0.01 in September. This is consistent with the general cooling in the labor market pace of hiring, but also could have some influence from ongoing large strike activity as businesses adjacent to automotive production were waiting for the strike resolution. The contribution from sales, orders, and inventories is down to minus 0.04 in October after 0.00 in September. The contribution from personal consumption and housing is little changed at minus 0.02 in October after 0.00 in September.
It is likely that the UAW strike contributed noticeably to the lower reading in October. Production-related indicators made a minus 0.33 contribution in October after minus 0.04 in September. This was a much larger decline than in other broad categories. Employment indicators contributed minus 0.10 in October after plus 0.01 in September. This is consistent with the general cooling in the labor market pace of hiring, but also could have some influence from ongoing large strike activity as businesses adjacent to automotive production were waiting for the strike resolution. The contribution from sales, orders, and inventories is down to minus 0.04 in October after 0.00 in September. The contribution from personal consumption and housing is little changed at minus 0.02 in October after 0.00 in September.
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Description
This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
