ActualPreviousConsensus
Month over Month0.39%0.36%
Year over Year4.6%4.5%4.6%

Highlights

Chinese industrial production rose 4.6 percent on the year in October after advancing 4.5 percent in September, just above the consensus forecast for an increase of 4.5 percent. Output rose 0.39 percent on the month after increasing 0.36 percent previously.

Steady growth in industrial production in October reflects offsetting moves in different sectors. Manufacturing output rose 5.1 percent on the year after increasing 4.4 percent previously, while mining output rose 2.9 percent after a previous increase of 1.7 percent. Output in the utilities sector, however, recorded slower year-over-year growth, up 1.5 percent after a previous increase of 3.5 percent.

Industrial production and other activity data published today show relatively steady year-over-year and month-over-month growth in October. PMI surveys and inflation data published earlier in the month also showed relatively steady but subdued conditions. Ongoing weakness in the property market, however, continues to weigh on overall activity. Officials characterised today's data as evidence that China's economy"sustained the good momentum of recovery" in October, with their assessment providing little indication that they believe substantial changes to policy settings are required.

Activity data published today were mixed relative to expectations, but the biggest miss was to the upside. The China RPI and RPI-P rose from minus 64 to minus 21 and from minus 100 to minus 40 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are continuing to come in below consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Year-over-year growth in industrial production is expected to slow slightly in October to 4.6 percent versus growth of 4.5 percent in September which was slightly higher than expected.

Definition

Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.

Description

Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.

The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
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