Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.2% |
Year over Year | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% |
Highlights
Consumer prices slipped by 0.4 percent, well below the consensus estimate of a 0.1 percent rise, after a 0.2 percent decline in October. That takes the annual rate of inflation down to 0.8 far short of the expected 1.3 percent gain after a 1.7 percent rise in October.
The underlying inflation rate declined to an annual rate of 3.6 percent from 4.2 percent in October. Despite the sizeable fall, that still leaves core inflation well above the European Central Bank's 2.0 percent target.
The harmonised inflation rate, which feeds into the Eurozone composite, declined by 0.4 percent in November, after a 0.1 percent rise in October, bringing the annual rate down to 0.7 percent from 1.8 percent previously.
Eurozone inflation also released on Thursday declined to an annual rate of 2.4 percent, but underlying price pressures remain elevated, falling to 3.6 percent from 4.2 percent in October.
However, ebbing inflation may also strengthen the market view that Eurozone rates could begin to decline next year, with some analysts looking for as many as four rate cuts in 2024.
That's despite continued hawkish comments from European rate setters. Earlier this week, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel insisted that it's too early to begin envisioning a lower rate environment. The Bank's governing council left the door open to further rate hikes at their October rate-setting meeting, according to minutes released last week.
The data take the Italian RPI to minus 38 and the RPI-P to minus 3, meaning that overall economic activity is underperforming market expectations but only due to surprisingly weak prices.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.