ActualPrevious
Month over Month2.2%0.8%
Year over Year-12.4%-18.3%

Highlights

Producer prices for the domestic market increased by 2.2 percent in October, well above than 0.8 percent gain in September. But base effects meant that annual PPI declined by 12.4 percent, a slower deceleration than the 18.3 percent fall recorded in September.

The sharp rise in crude oil prices that began in late August had an outsized effect on the monthly increase in producer costs; energy prices rose by 6.9 percent in October, even as energy prices plummeted by 28.0 percent over the same period a year ago.

Aside from energy, producer price pressures were subdued. Consumer goods prices were flat on the month (up 3.5 percent annually), while capital goods prices increased by 0.1 percent (or by 1.9 percent percent over October of last year) and intermediate goods declined by 0.7 percent (for a 6.3 percent annual fall).

Crude oil prices peaked in late September and have declined by 15 percent since then; that decline could reduce producer price pressures in months to come.

The latest data put the Italian RPI at minus 27 and leaves the RPI-P at minus 8, meaning that overall economic activity is underperforming market expectations.

Definition

The producer price indices (PPI) measure transaction prices, exclusive of VAT, for goods from industrial activities sold on the Italian market. Construction is excluded. Changes in the index provide a guide to inflation from the point of view of the product's producer/manufacturer and, in contrast to the consumer price index (CPI), excludes VAT and other deductible taxed associated with turnover.

Description

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI).

Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction.

The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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