| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% |
| Year over Year | 1.3% | 2.4% |
Highlights
Retail sales declined by 0.3 percent in value terms in September, a bit worse than the consensus forecast of a 0.2 percent fall, extending a 0.4 percent slump in August.
On an annual basis, sales increased by 1.3 percent, the 31st straight increase, after a 2.4 percent gain in August, although the September rise was the smallest in nearly a year. Online series broke a 14-month winning streak, declining by 2.6 percent over the same month of 2022.
The monthly decline was more severe in volume terms, dropping by 0.6 percent from August and by 4.4 percent over September of last year.
Big-ticket items like household appliances and audio-visual equipment accounted for much of the annual decline, sagging by 7.9 percent in value terms, while cosmetics and toilet articles jumped by 5.3 percent.
Over the three months to September, sales volumes fell by 1.3 percent, raising the possibility of downward revisions to later iterations of gross domestic product. Italian GDP flatlined in the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate released last week, although that report contained little sectoral detail.
The latest data take the Italian RPI to minus 25 and the RPI-P to minus 19, meaning the Italian economy has been underperforming market expectations by some margin.
On an annual basis, sales increased by 1.3 percent, the 31st straight increase, after a 2.4 percent gain in August, although the September rise was the smallest in nearly a year. Online series broke a 14-month winning streak, declining by 2.6 percent over the same month of 2022.
The monthly decline was more severe in volume terms, dropping by 0.6 percent from August and by 4.4 percent over September of last year.
Big-ticket items like household appliances and audio-visual equipment accounted for much of the annual decline, sagging by 7.9 percent in value terms, while cosmetics and toilet articles jumped by 5.3 percent.
Over the three months to September, sales volumes fell by 1.3 percent, raising the possibility of downward revisions to later iterations of gross domestic product. Italian GDP flatlined in the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate released last week, although that report contained little sectoral detail.
The latest data take the Italian RPI to minus 25 and the RPI-P to minus 19, meaning the Italian economy has been underperforming market expectations by some margin.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Following a 0.4 percent monthly drop in August, sales are expected to end the quarter with a 0.2 percent dip.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are expressed in nominal terms but volume statistics are also available. Autos are excluded. Only a very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the first report but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
