US soybean crush hit a new record high for the month of September at 174.76 million bushels versus the previous record of 171.06 million in 2020. This was at the upper end of pre-report estimates. The September average is 163.36 million bushels. US soybean crush pace hit a new record high for the month of September at 5.83 million bushels versus the previous record of 5.70 million in 2020 The September average crush pace is 5.45 million bushels per day.

US soybean oil stocks in September came in at 1.602 billion pounds versus 1.772 last month and 1.991 last year. The average stock level for this time of year is 1.909 billion pounds. The largest stock level for this month was 1.995 (2018) and lowest was 1.687 (2016). Current stock levels are running at 0.09% of USDA ending stocks estimates for the year.

This monthly release is part of the Current Agricultural Industrial Report (CAIR) program, and covers the crush of oilseeds and production of crude oil for selected states and the U.S. as well as U.S. production and consumption of selected fats and oils for edible and inedible uses. The end-of-month stock values by oilseed are also published. The report is compiled from data from facilities regarding oilseed crushing, crude oil production, once refined oil production, rendering production, and end of month stocks for the previous calendar month.

This report offers processing data for oilseeds, including soybeans. It also offers supply data for soybean oil.

The soybean crush data measures the amount of soybeans that are processed (crushed) during a given month. Crush is the primary demand component for soybeans. Analysts like to track the monthly crush data as the marketing year progresses and compare it with previous years and with the pace needed to reach the USDA’s forecast. If the crush is running behind pace, trader may expect the USDA to lower their forecast in future Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports.

The soybean oil stocks data measures the amount in storage at the end of the month. If stocks are unusually high, analysts may become concerned about oversupply, and they may also become concerned that demand is not as strong as expected. Likewise, if oil stocks are lower than expected, analysts may be alerted to stronger than expected demand. In recent years there have been times when the soybean crush was running at a record pace and soybean oil stocks were declining. This was because soybean oil exports were strong. Biodiesel is another component for soybean oil demand.