ConsensusActualPrevious
Rate6.5%6.5%6.5%

Highlights

Unemployment rose further in October. Following a slightly smaller revised 55,000 increase in September, joblessness climbed 48,000 to 11.134 million. However, the latest rise was not large enough to boost the unemployment rate which, at 6.5 percent, was unchanged from the previous month, just a tick above its all-time low and in line with the market consensus.

The national rate rose a couple of ticks to 7.8 percent in Italy, but was flat in France (6.5 percent), Germany (3.1 percent) and Spain (12.0 percent).

Inflation is currently falling quickly in the Eurozone but the ECB will be alert to the potential threat to wages from what is still a very tight labour market. Wage negotiations next quarter will be watched very closely. Today's reports trim the Eurozone RPI to minus 11 but only due to weak prices at 5 the RPI-P shows overall real economic activity essentially matching market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Consensus for October's unemployment rate is no change at 6.5 percent.

Definition

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.

Description

Unemployment data are closely monitored by the financial markets. These data give a comprehensive report on the state of the economy and its future direction. A rising unemployment rate can be a warning sign of hard times while a low rate can be a warning of inflation as wages are bid up to attract labor.

Unemployment data are expressed in both a numerical value and as a percentage of the labor force. Generally, the definition of those unemployed follows that of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). It states that an unemployed person is one between the ages of 15 to 74 years of age who was not employed during the reference week, had actively sought work during the past four weeks and was ready to begin working immediately or within two weeks. The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed persons over the total number of active persons in the labor market. Active persons are those who are either employed or unemployed.

Eurostat provides an unemployment rate for each EU country as well as for the EMU and EU as a whole. It should be noted that the unemployment rate for a country will frequently differ with that reported by the national statistics agency. That is because of the varying interpretations of the ILO definition by member states and Eurostat.
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