ConsensusActualPrevious
Index43.043.143.4

Highlights

The final report confirmed a miserable month for Eurozone manufacturing in October. The 43.0 flash sector PMI was nudged a tick higher to 43.1 but was still below September's final 43.4 and, more importantly, far enough below the 50-growth threshold to signal recession.

Ominously, new orders declined at one of the steepest rates on record and backlogs were similarly trimmed at a rapid and an accelerated pace. Moreover, output decreased at the joint-second strongest rate since May 2020. Stocks of purchases were depleted by the most since November 2012 and the decline in employment was also more marked than in the previous month. Business expectations about the year ahead remained marginally positive but sentiment still slid to an 11-month low. On the prices front, deflation was again the main feature as both input costs and output prices continued to fall.

In terms of national PMIs, the best performing member state was Greece (50.8) which was the only country to post above 50. Ireland (48.2) was bordering on stagnation but Spain (45.1) and Italy (44.9) signalled hefty declines in activity. The Netherlands (43.8), France (42.8), Austria (41.7) and Germany (40.8) were even weaker.

The final October results offer little new. Eurozone manufacturing is in the doldrums and looks likely to remain there for some time yet. Falling costs are about the only positive to take away from today's report. However, the data put the Eurozone RPI at minus 11 and the RPI-P at minus 8, both readings indicating that overall economic activity is falling only slightly short of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected leaving the headline index at 43.0, down from September's final 43.4.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). Released by S&P Global, national data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece. These countries together account for an estimated 89 percent of Eurozone manufacturing activity.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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