Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
Highlights
Household consumption dropped a quarterly 0.3 percent, its third decline in the last four quarters, but gross fixed capital formation rose 0.6 percent courtesy of gains in equipment investment (1.1 percent) and construction spending (0.4 percent). Government consumption was up 0.2 percent but business inventories subtracted 0.4 percentage points. Consequently, domestic demand also declined 0.4 percent.
Net foreign trade had a positive effect (0.2 percentage points) but only because imports (minus 1.3 percent) fell faster than exports (minus 0.8 percent).
The detailed national accounts leave the German economy in a fragile position heading towards year-end. The weakness of consumer spending is a major issue and with confidence levels here still historically very low, the sector looks likely to be a drag on growth again this quarter. Indeed, while the pick-up in investment is good news, recession is probably just around the corner. Still, today's update puts the German RPI at 8 and the RPI-P at 11, both readings showing overall economic activity at least running marginally ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.