| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | €18.0B | €16.5B | €16.6B | €17.7B |
| Imports - M/M | -1.7% | -0.4% | -0.3% | |
| Imports - Y/Y | -18.5% | -16.7% | -17.0% | |
| Exports - M/M | -2.4% | -1.2% | 0.1% | |
| Exports - Y/Y | -10.5% | -5.8% | -5.3% |
Highlights
The seasonally adjusted surplus narrowed to €16.5 billion from an upwardly revised €17.7 billion in August (originally reported at €16.6 billion), a bit below the market consensus of €18.0 billion. Unadjusted, the surplus rose to €19.0 billion from €16.0 billion (originally reported as €14.4 billion).
The headline deterioration was largely due to a 2.4 percent decline in exports. This is the biggest fall since March, leaving exports at their lowest level since March of 2022. Imports declined, albeit by a less-gaping 1.7 percent. Inward shipments have now fallen in six of the last seven months and stand at their lowest level since November of 2022. On an unadjusted basis, exports slumped by 10.5 percent, while imports sagged by 18.5 percent.
Sales to European Union states declined by a seasonally adjusted 2.1 percent in September, while imports fell by 2.6 percent. Outside of the bloc, exports slumped by 2.8 percent, while incoming shipments eased by 0.6 percent.
Germany's three-party coalition government has, at times, struggled to agree on the best way to handle China, a key trading partner. Exports to the world's second biggest economy slumped by 7.7 percent in September, while imports rose by 0.9 percent.
The latest data take the German RPI to minus 4 and the RPI-P to 12, with the latter measure showing the economy narrowly outperforming market expectations.
The headline deterioration was largely due to a 2.4 percent decline in exports. This is the biggest fall since March, leaving exports at their lowest level since March of 2022. Imports declined, albeit by a less-gaping 1.7 percent. Inward shipments have now fallen in six of the last seven months and stand at their lowest level since November of 2022. On an unadjusted basis, exports slumped by 10.5 percent, while imports sagged by 18.5 percent.
Sales to European Union states declined by a seasonally adjusted 2.1 percent in September, while imports fell by 2.6 percent. Outside of the bloc, exports slumped by 2.8 percent, while incoming shipments eased by 0.6 percent.
Germany's three-party coalition government has, at times, struggled to agree on the best way to handle China, a key trading partner. Exports to the world's second biggest economy slumped by 7.7 percent in September, while imports rose by 0.9 percent.
The latest data take the German RPI to minus 4 and the RPI-P to 12, with the latter measure showing the economy narrowly outperforming market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Germany's goods balance is expected to widen to an €18.0 billion surplus in September versus a surplus of €16.6 billion in August.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
