Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
Year over Year | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
Highlights
Household spending declined a sizeable 0.4 percent on the quarter, reversing most of the second quarter's 0.5 percent gain and its first drop since the end of last year. Gross fixed capital formation was even weaker, slumping fully 2.0 percent, within which business investment was down some 4.2 percent, albeit after a cumulative increase of more than 8 percent in the previous two quarters. In a similar vein, government spending dropped 0.5 percent following a 2.5 percent jump. With business inventories (excluding alignment and balancing) subtracting 0.9 percentage points, total domestic demand declined 0.5 percent.
Consequently, growth would have been negative but for a reduction in the real trade deficit as exports rose 0.5 percent and imports fell 0.8 percent. This provided a 0.4 percentage point boost.
If they remain unrevised, the latest data will mean that the UK avoided falling into recession in the second half of the year. However, the economy is clearly struggling with domestic demand notably weak. In any event, the third quarter outcome was in line with the BoE's own forecast and should not have any immediate implications for policy. Indeed, financial markets will view today's update as increasing the likelihood that the next move in Bank Rate will be down. The UK's RPI now stands at 17 and the RPI-P at 12. Both readings show recent overall economic activity modestly outperforming market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if the UK reports that the consumer price index has risen more than the Bank of England's 2 percent inflation target, demand for sterling could decline. Similarly, when the Bank of England lowers interest rates, the pound sterling weakens. (Currency traders also watch the interest rate spread between countries.)