ConsensusActualPrevious
Level45.244.844.3

Highlights

Manufacturing activity was revised a little weaker in the final data for October. At 44.8, the amended sector PMI was 0.4 points short of its flash estimate, albeit still above its final 44.3 post in September. The latest reading suggests that manufacturing remains firmly in the doldrums.

Output fell for an eighth straight month, the longest sustained sequence of declines since 2008/09, and at a slightly faster rate than at quarter-end. Demand continued to contract at home and abroad, prompting another drop in purchasing activity as companies sought to reduce finished goods inventories. Yet another fall in backlogs was amongst the steepest on record and headcount was similarly cut once more. Despite all this, businesses remained optimistic about prospects for the year ahead but sentiment still sank to a 10-month low.

On a brighter note, inflationary pressures eased further. Input costs fell for a sixth consecutive month while output prices were trimmed for the fourth time in the last five.

Developments in UK manufacturing continue to largely mirror those seen in continental Europe. The sector is still struggling in the face of weak demand in a highly competitive market. Falling costs is one of the few positives in today's report but this is unlikely to stop the sector from being a drag on fourth quarter GDP growth. To this end, the negative headline revision leaves both the UK RPI (minus 16) and RPI-P (minus 27) far enough below zero to indicate that even current forecasts for weak overall economic activity may be subject to downside risk.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected leaving the headline index at 45.2, up from September's final 44.3.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The survey covers more than 600 industrial companies and is compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the and S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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