ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Annual Rate3.910M3.880M to 4.000M3.79M3.96M3.95M
Month over Month-4.1%-2.0%-2.2%
Year over Year-14.6%-15.4%-15.6%

Highlights

The NAR data on sales of existing homes in October show a 4.1 percent decline to 3.79 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate after a negligible revision down to 3.95 million units in September. Existing home sales are down 14.6 percent compared to a year ago. The Econoday survey of forecasters anticipated a smaller decline with a consensus of 3.91 million units. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said,"Prospective home buyers experienced another difficult month due to the persistent lack of housing inventory and the highest mortgage rates in a generation." He continued,"Multiple offers, however, are still occurring, especially on starter and mid-priced homes, even as price concessions are happening in the upper end of the market."

Sales of single-family existing homes are down 4.2 percent in October to 3.38 million units after 3.53 million units in September and are down 14.6 percent from 3.96 million units in October 2022. Sales of multi-unit homes are down 2.4 percent to 410,000 in October after 420,000 in September and down 14.6 percent from 480,000 a year ago.

The supply of homes available for sale inches up to 3.6 months' worth in October after 3.4 months in September and 3.3 in October 2022. Supply remains thin as current mortgage holders who captured low rates prior to the Fall of 2022 are not inclined to sell at present despite elevated home values. The median price for an existing home is down a scant 0.3 percent to $391,800 in October but is up 3.4 percent compared to a year ago. Competition for existing units remains fierce.

The average number of days a home is listed is up to 23 days in October after 21 days in September and 21 days in October 2022. The small increase does not change the fact that homes continue to be snapped up quickly, at least for the more affordable price ranges. In October, 66 percent of homes were on the market less than one month compared to 69 percent in September.

The share of first-time home buyers is little changed at 28 percent in October after 27 percent in September and 28 in October 2022.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

After September's 3.96 million annual rate, existing home sales in October are expected to slow slightly to a 3.91 million rate. Low inventory of homes for sale, high prices and high interest rates have been hurting sales.

Definition

Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.

Description

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.

Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
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