ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month0.4%0.3% to 0.7%0.4%0.5%1.0%
Year over Year8.7%7.4%7.6%

Highlights

Very high financing rates have yet to slow construction spending very much. Spending rose an as-expected 0.4 percent in September split between a 0.6 percent rise for residential construction and a 0.3 percent rise for the nonresidential side. On an annual basis, total spending grew 8.7 percent in September, up from 7.6 percent in August and the strongest rate since September last year.

Nonresidential spending has been leading the construction sector, at 19.0 percent annual growth versus 2.1 percent contraction for residential spending. Spending here has been in annual contraction all year though September's rate is the most limited since November last year.

Watch for comments today from Jerome Powell on the construction sector and whether he notes its surprising resilience to high interest rates. These results, together with a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing index and stronger-than-expected JOLTS report (also posted at 10:00 ET) leave the Relative Performance Index at plus 3, very close to the zero line to indicate that recent US data, on net, are coming in very near consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Construction spending for September is expected to rise 0.4 percent following August's 0.5 percent. This report has yet to show any dramatic effects of rising financing costs.

Definition

The dollar value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars.

Description

Construction spending has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities because it is a part of the economy that is affected by interest rates, business cash flow and even federal fiscal policy. In a more specific sense, trends in the construction data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders and large-scale construction contractors. Commodity prices such as lumber are also very sensitive to housing industry trends.

Businesses only put money into the construction of new factories or offices when they are confident that demand is strong enough to justify the expansion. The same goes for individuals making the investment in a home.

A portion of construction spending is related to government projects such as education buildings as well a highways and streets. While investors are more concerned with private construction spending, the government projects put money in the hands of laborers who then have more money to spend on goods and services.

On a technical note, construction outlays for private residential, private nonresidential, and government are key inputs into three components of GDP--residential investment, nonresidential structures investment, and the structures portion of government expenditures.

That is why construction spending is a good indicator of the economy's momentum.
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