Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 219K | 210K to 233K | 218K | 209K | 211K |
Initial Claims - Change | 7K | -24K | -22K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 220.00K | 220.00K | 220.50K |
Highlights
Continuing claims, in contrast, jumped 86,000 in lagging data for the November 18 week to 1.927 million for the highest reading in two years; the four-week average at 1.866 million is the highest in nearly two years. The unemployment rate for insured workers is up a tenth to 1.3 percent, still low but the highest since April this year.
The Department of Labor didn't cite any special factors for the rise in continuing claims though bumps in seasonal adjustments could be at play as the unadjusted level, at 1.557 million, was down 97,800 from the prior week.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.