ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Initial Claims - Level219K210K to 233K218K209K211K
Initial Claims - Change7K-24K-22K
4-Week Moving Average220.00K220.00K220.50K

Highlights

Initial claims are steady and low but continuing claims, in perhaps an indication of loosening in the labor market, are on the rise. Initial claims did rise 7,000 in the November 25 week but the 218,000 level is 1,000 below Econoday's consensus. The four-week average is nearly unchanged at 220,000 to indicate strong demand for labor.

Continuing claims, in contrast, jumped 86,000 in lagging data for the November 18 week to 1.927 million for the highest reading in two years; the four-week average at 1.866 million is the highest in nearly two years. The unemployment rate for insured workers is up a tenth to 1.3 percent, still low but the highest since April this year.

The Department of Labor didn't cite any special factors for the rise in continuing claims though bumps in seasonal adjustments could be at play as the unadjusted level, at 1.557 million, was down 97,800 from the prior week.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Jobless claims for the November 25 week are expected to rebound to 219,000 versus 209,000 in the prior week.

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Description

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
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