Initial jobless claims are down 24,000 to 209,000 in the week ending November 18 after a small upward revision to 233,000 in the November 11 week. The four-week moving average is down 750 to 220,000. The level for the November 18 week is well below the consensus of 225,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The seasonally adjusted level has reflected a mismatch in adjustment factors in the last two weeks and caused some large week-to-week movements. The mismatch may reflect the relatively late timing of election day in 2023 when election workers are normally laid off immediately following the voting period. The four-week moving average points to November showing a slightly faster pace of jobless claims than in September and October, but one still consistent with moderate economic growth and a tight labor market.

Insured jobless claims are down 22,000 to 1.840 million in the November 11 week after 1.862 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average is up 14,250 to 1.837 million after 1.823 million in the November 4 week. Levels of benefits recipients remain fairly steady. Among those eligible for unemployment compensation, there is a turnover as some find new jobs and others time out of benefits. The insured rate of unemployment is unchanged at 1.2 percent where it as been for seven straight weeks.

Jobless claims for the November 18 week are expected to come in at 225,000 versus 231,000 in the prior week.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.