Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 222K | 201K to 225K | 231K | 217K | 218K |
Initial Claims - Change | 13K | -3K | -2K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 220.25K | 212.25K | 212.50K |
Highlights
Continuing claims in lagging data for the November 4 week rose 32,000 to 1.865 million, the highest level since the week ended November 27, 2021 and marking the eighth consecutive week of increase. The advance lifted the unemployment rate for insured workers from 1.2 to 1.3 percent, a level not seen since the April 15 week. Since that week, the unemployment rate had been contained within a tight range of 1.1 percent to 1.2 percent.
Today's data suggest conditions in the labor market might be cooling and come on the back of a set of lower-than-expected inflation figures, which together should lower expectations of further rate hikes.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.