ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
General Activity Index-16.5-17.0 to -15.0-19.9-19.2
Production Index-7.25.2

Highlights

The Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey showed business activity slowed further in November with the general activity index at minus 19.9 in November versus minus 19.2 in October. The latest figure compared with the Econoday consensus expectation of minus 16.5.

Details in the Dallas report included new orders at minus 20.5 from minus 8.8 in October. Production fell to minus 7.2 from 5.2 in October. Shipments dropped to minus 9.5 in November from minus 1.4 in October.

Employment came in at 5.0 in November versus 6.7 in October. Hours worked fell to minus 5.5 from minus 2.3.

Prices paid for raw materials were 12.6 in November versus 13.6 in October. Prices received declined to minus 6.2 from minus 2.1.

On the six-month outlook, general business conditions slipped to minus 13.4 from minus 6.8.
The six-month outlook for new orders was 8.4 in November versus 12.4 in October.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The activity index is expected to extend its long contraction, at a consensus minus 16.5 in November versus minus 19.2 in October.

Definition

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey tracks factory activity in Texas on a monthly basis. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. Responses are aggregated into balance indexes where positive values generally indicate growth while negative values generally indicate contraction. About 100 manufacturers regularly participate in the survey.

Description

Investors track economic data like the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey to understand the economic backdrop for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a moderate growth environment that will not generate inflationary pressures. The Dallas Survey gives a detailed look at Texas' manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where it is headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report can have a big influence on the markets. Some of the survey indexes also provide insight on inflation pressures -- including prices paid, prices received, wages & benefits, and capacity utilization. The Federal Reserve closely watches this report because when inflation signals are flashing, policymakers can reset the direction of interest rates. As a consequence, the bond market can be highly sensitive to this report. The equity market is also sensitive to this report because it is an early clue on the nation's manufacturing sector, reported in advance of the ISM manufacturing index and often in advance of the NAPM-Chicago index.
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