ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Total Vehicle Sales - Annual Rate15.4M15.0M to 16.3M15.5M15.7M
North American-Made Sales - Annual Rate12.0M12.0M12.1M

Highlights

Total motor vehicle sales dip to 15.5 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate after an unrevised 15.7 million units in September but are up from 14.7 million units in October 2022. The October sales pace is just above the consensus of 15.4 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Total sales of domestically produced motor vehicles is little changed at 12.0 million units in October after 12.1 million units in September and is up from the 11.6 million units in October 2022. Sales of domestically produced motor vehicles accounted for 77 percent of all sales.

Sales of passenger cars are down to 3.100 million units in October from 3.220 million units in September and not very different from the 3.036 million units in October 2022. Sales of light trucks which include minivans, crossovers, and SUVs are slightly lower at 12.397 million units in October after 12.462 million units in September and are up from 11.646 in October 2022. Sales of light trucks maintain their dominance at 80 percent of total sales despite elevated fuel costs. Sales are higher in comparison to last year in part because availability has improved now that supply chains are running more efficiently.

Sales of heavy trucks are down to 475,000 in October after 501,000 in September but much the same as 476,000 in October 2022. Rising financing costs may be slowing sales of equipment for businesses and suggest that business investment in equipment will be weaker in the fourth quarter 2023, and a negative for fourth quarter GDP.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Unit vehicle sales in October are expected to decrease to a 15.4 million annual rate from September's higher-than-expected 15.7 million.

Definition

Unit sales of motor vehicles, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the beginning of each month, include domestic sales and imports. Domestics are sales of autos produced in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Imports are U.S. sales of vehicles produced elsewhere. The data track all passenger cars and light trucks up to 14,000 pounds gross weight (including minivans and sport utility vehicles). Though totals include a relatively small portion sold to businesses, motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending and often are considered a leading indicator at business cycle turning points.

Description

Since motor vehicle sales are an important element of consumer spending, market players watch this closely to get a handle on the direction of the economy. The pattern of consumption spending is one of the foremost influences on stock and bond markets. Strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. The bond market focus is on whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s.

Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market during the 2001 recession but then, boosted by a low interest rate environment, rose sharply through 2007 before falling sharply during the Great Recession. Sales then recovered and, once again boosted by low rates, began a long period of steady and favorable growth.

In a more specific sense, auto and truck sales show market conditions for auto makers and the slew of auto-related companies. These figures can influence particular stock prices and provide insight to investment opportunities in this industry. Given that most consumers borrow money to buy cars or trucks, sales also reflect confidence in current and future economic conditions.
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