Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Balance | $-49.8B | $-210.0B to $35.0B | $-66.6B | $-170.9B | $-170.7B |
Highlights
The latest monthly deficit reflected budget outlays at $469.997 billion compared with $406.374 billion in the year-ago month, while receipts were $403.434 billion compared with $318.500 billion last year.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The Federal government borrows money through the issuance of Treasury securities; so higher deficits mean a larger supply of securities and (again, assuming constant demand) lower prices. With notes and bonds, lower prices are equated with higher yields, so in this example, the government borrows money at higher interest rates. That impact ripples across all other interest rate-bearing securities and creates a higher interest-rate environment for stocks, which is bearish.
In addition to following the trend in the budget deficit or surplus, investors can gain valuable insight to the state of the economy by looking at the government's tax receipts. Higher tax receipts lead to an improved deficit situation when economic conditions are strong; conversely, lower tax receipts reflect a sluggish economic environment.