Highlights
For this week, the Bank of Japan board is expected to maintain its basic monetary easing stance in a unanimous vote on Tuesday, as it did in September. In July, the bank expanded its target range for the 10-year bond yield to make its yield curve control framework more sustainable.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged for a second straight meeting on Wednesday, letting the cumulative effects of the current tightening cycle cool off economic activity, and thus inflation. The Bank of England is also expected to hold policy steady for a second straight meeting on Thursday.
On Monday, the European Commission's economic sentiment index in October is expected to fall to 93.0 from 93.3 in September, which was down for a fifth straight month and at its lowest level since November 2020.
Germany's consumer inflation is forecast to ease further to 4.0 percent in October form 4.5 percent in September and 6.1 percent in August.
In South Korea, industrial production is expected to fall 1.0 percent on the month in September after a 5.5 percent rise in August. The year-over-year decrease is seen decelerating to minus 0.2 percent from minus 0.5 percent.
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 14th straight rise on year in September as hospitals, hotels, restaurants and construction firms tried to fill job vacancies while the unemployment rate is forecast to have edged down to 2.6 percent after being flat at 2.7 percent in August and unexpectedly rose from 2.5 percent in July. Some of the people who had quit earlier to look for better openings appear to have found work in the past couple of months.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to post its first rise in three months in September, up 2.5 percent, after falling a revised 0.7 percent in August and slumping 1.8 percent in July. Output of automobiles returned to normal after a temporary shutdown at Toyota Motor's domestic factories on Aug. 29. Even with a rebound in September, production in the third quarter is forecast to record a slight 0.6 percent drop from April-June, when it rose 1.4 percent for the first rise in three quarters. Global demand for semiconductor-producing equipment remains soft.
Retail sales in Japan are forecast to have risen 5.7 percent on year in September, slowing from a revised 7.1 percent increase in August, as the heat wave, which had boosted demand for summer clothing, lingered to spoil the appetite for autumn goods. New vehicle sales were solid but slower and fuel prices also eased after national average regular gasoline prices hit record highs from late August to early September. Overall retail sales values have been propped up by elevated prices for food and beverages.
The Bank of Japan policy board is expected to decide unanimously to maintain its monetary easing stance, as it did in September, keeping its zero to slightly negative interest rate targets along the yield curve as well as large asset purchases to continue seeking stable 2% inflation and support sustainable wage growth.
Governor Kazuo Ueda told a post-meeting news conference last month that the bank's policymakers cannot possibly pre-determine the timing of policy change or specific responses, reminding that it may take some more time before clear indications for continued substantial wage hikes and stable 2% inflation emerge. He repeated that Japan's growth and inflation outlook remains highly uncertain. Ueda also said the risk of under-easing is still greater than over-easing because Japan has experienced years of deflation and low inflation.
In its quarterly Outlook Report due after the Oct. 30-31 meeting, the Bank of Japan board's median forecasts for the core CPI (excluding fresh food) for fiscal 2023 and 2024 are likely to be revised up but their projection for fiscal 2025 is expected to remain under the bank's 2 percent target.
China's CFLP manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to hold steady at 50.2 in October while the non-manufacturing PMI, which in September improved more than a half point to 51.7, is expected to edge higher to 51.8.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged for a second straight meeting on Wednesday, letting the cumulative effects of the current tightening cycle cool off economic activity, and thus inflation. The Bank of England is also expected to hold policy steady for a second straight meeting on Thursday.
On Monday, the European Commission's economic sentiment index in October is expected to fall to 93.0 from 93.3 in September, which was down for a fifth straight month and at its lowest level since November 2020.
Germany's consumer inflation is forecast to ease further to 4.0 percent in October form 4.5 percent in September and 6.1 percent in August.
In South Korea, industrial production is expected to fall 1.0 percent on the month in September after a 5.5 percent rise in August. The year-over-year decrease is seen decelerating to minus 0.2 percent from minus 0.5 percent.
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 14th straight rise on year in September as hospitals, hotels, restaurants and construction firms tried to fill job vacancies while the unemployment rate is forecast to have edged down to 2.6 percent after being flat at 2.7 percent in August and unexpectedly rose from 2.5 percent in July. Some of the people who had quit earlier to look for better openings appear to have found work in the past couple of months.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to post its first rise in three months in September, up 2.5 percent, after falling a revised 0.7 percent in August and slumping 1.8 percent in July. Output of automobiles returned to normal after a temporary shutdown at Toyota Motor's domestic factories on Aug. 29. Even with a rebound in September, production in the third quarter is forecast to record a slight 0.6 percent drop from April-June, when it rose 1.4 percent for the first rise in three quarters. Global demand for semiconductor-producing equipment remains soft.
Retail sales in Japan are forecast to have risen 5.7 percent on year in September, slowing from a revised 7.1 percent increase in August, as the heat wave, which had boosted demand for summer clothing, lingered to spoil the appetite for autumn goods. New vehicle sales were solid but slower and fuel prices also eased after national average regular gasoline prices hit record highs from late August to early September. Overall retail sales values have been propped up by elevated prices for food and beverages.
The Bank of Japan policy board is expected to decide unanimously to maintain its monetary easing stance, as it did in September, keeping its zero to slightly negative interest rate targets along the yield curve as well as large asset purchases to continue seeking stable 2% inflation and support sustainable wage growth.
Governor Kazuo Ueda told a post-meeting news conference last month that the bank's policymakers cannot possibly pre-determine the timing of policy change or specific responses, reminding that it may take some more time before clear indications for continued substantial wage hikes and stable 2% inflation emerge. He repeated that Japan's growth and inflation outlook remains highly uncertain. Ueda also said the risk of under-easing is still greater than over-easing because Japan has experienced years of deflation and low inflation.
In its quarterly Outlook Report due after the Oct. 30-31 meeting, the Bank of Japan board's median forecasts for the core CPI (excluding fresh food) for fiscal 2023 and 2024 are likely to be revised up but their projection for fiscal 2025 is expected to remain under the bank's 2 percent target.
China's CFLP manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to hold steady at 50.2 in October while the non-manufacturing PMI, which in September improved more than a half point to 51.7, is expected to edge higher to 51.8.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
