The CBI's October survey found sales still falling on the year and at a significantly faster pace than in September. At minus 36 percent, the headline balance was down some 22 percentage points versus quarter-end and even further below the market consensus. This was its sixth straight sub-zero print and its second lowest reading so far in 2023. Actual sales rose a solid 1.1 percent on the month a year ago which will have made for some downside risk but the slide still looks ominously steep.

The October report trims the UK's RPI to minus 18 and the RPI-P to minus 33, both measures showing that overall economic activity is also still undershooting market expectations. This should boost the likelihood of no change in Bank Rate from the BoE MPC meeting next week.

The headline sales balance is seen little changed at minus 13 percent, just 1 percentage point above its September level.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.