The CBI's October industrial trends survey found demand contracting sharply and by more than expected. At minus 26 percent, down from September's minus 18 percent, the headline orders index saw its weakest level since January 2021 and was some 12 percentage points below the market consensus. Accordingly, the measure also slid further beneath its long-run average (minus 13 percent).

October is also a quarterly survey month so today's update comes with a new business sentiment index. At minus 15 percent, this was well down from 6 percent in the previous report to signal confidence sliding to its lowest mark since the end of last year.

The October data are consistent with the flash PMI survey released earlier this morning in painting a bleak picture of the UK's manufacturing sector. Moreover, with the UK's RPI now at minus 8 and the RPI-P at minus 28 percent, it is not just the goods producing area that is underperforming.

The headline orders balance is expected to rise from minus 18 percent to minus 14 percent.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly