Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
Year over Year | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
Highlights
Gross domestic product expanded by 0.1 percent, in line with market expectations, but down sharply from the upwardly revised 0.6 percent pace set in the second quarter. However annual growth slowed to 0.7 percent from an upwardly revised 1.1 percent previously.
The weak but positive third quarter growth came despite a perky 0.7 percent jump in household consumption after a flat performance in the previous period, although second quarter consumption was revised upward from the initially reported 0.4 percent decline.
Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.0 percent, but that gain was concentrated in the business sector; household GFCF rose by just 0.1 percent. Inventory changes added 0.7 percentage points to the third quarter outcome, but that was nearly wiped out by a 0.6 percentage point drag from net exports. That's a turnaround from the second quarter, when foreign trade accounted for a large portion of the perkier headline growth.
While the GDP data matched the unambitious consensus forecast, they do outperform the picture painted by recent PMI data; composite PMIs were well below the break-even level of 50 in each month of the quarter, falling as low as 44.1 in September.
The latest data put the French RPI at 14 and the RPI-P at 17, meaning that overall economic activity is performing just marginally better than market expectations.
The French data will feed into flash Eurozone output data due later Tuesday. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos repeated the company line on Monday that the risks to growth are tilted to the downside adding to the sense that European interest rates are unlikely to rise further.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.