Highlights
The Reserve Bank of Australia has published the minutes of its October 3 meeting. Officials at that meeting left their main policy rate, the cash rate, unchanged at 4.10 percent for the fourth consecutive month after having increased policy rates by 400 basis points since May 2022.
Consistent with the statement accompanying the decision, the minutes note that recent higher fuel prices pushed the monthly measure of headline inflation higher in August. Officials expressed confidence that headline inflation will soon resume its recent downward trend but also highlighted upside risks to inflation expectations.
Officials noted that economic growth in the first half of the year was more resilient than they had expected, with strength in business and government investment offsetting weakness in household spending. However, they again cautioned that the full impact on the economy of previous policy tightening had yet to be seen and warned of downside risks to the growth outlook.
Reflecting these uncertainties, the minutes show that officials again considered another increase of 25 basis points as well as leaving rates on hold this month. However, despite their ongoing concerns about upside risks to the inflation outlook, officials concluded that there had not been sufficient new information since their last meeting to warrant a shift in policy settings. Nevertheless, officials noted that important new information will be available ahead of their next meeting, reaffirmed their willingness to do"what is necessary" to return inflation to its target range, and again advised that it may be necessary to tighten policy further in coming months.
Consistent with the statement accompanying the decision, the minutes note that recent higher fuel prices pushed the monthly measure of headline inflation higher in August. Officials expressed confidence that headline inflation will soon resume its recent downward trend but also highlighted upside risks to inflation expectations.
Officials noted that economic growth in the first half of the year was more resilient than they had expected, with strength in business and government investment offsetting weakness in household spending. However, they again cautioned that the full impact on the economy of previous policy tightening had yet to be seen and warned of downside risks to the growth outlook.
Reflecting these uncertainties, the minutes show that officials again considered another increase of 25 basis points as well as leaving rates on hold this month. However, despite their ongoing concerns about upside risks to the inflation outlook, officials concluded that there had not been sufficient new information since their last meeting to warrant a shift in policy settings. Nevertheless, officials noted that important new information will be available ahead of their next meeting, reaffirmed their willingness to do"what is necessary" to return inflation to its target range, and again advised that it may be necessary to tighten policy further in coming months.
Definition
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes minutes of its meetings with a two week lag. The text expands on the statement published two weeks earlier at the time of the announcement.
Description
Although the RBA's Reserve Bank Board issues a detailed statement at the conclusion of its monthly meetings, investors also look to the minutes for a more detailed description of current economic outlook both domestically and abroad along with the latest RBB policy thinking.
It is only recently that the RBA has released meeting minutes. At the conclusion of their December 2007 meeting, the RBA announced several changes to its communications policy. Previously, a statement was released only if a policy change was made. Now a statement is released at the conclusion of every meeting. Another change concerned the timing of the policy announcement. Rather than waiting until the next day, the announcement occurs immediately after the conclusion of the meeting. In addition, minutes are now released two weeks after the meeting.
It is only recently that the RBA has released meeting minutes. At the conclusion of their December 2007 meeting, the RBA announced several changes to its communications policy. Previously, a statement was released only if a policy change was made. Now a statement is released at the conclusion of every meeting. Another change concerned the timing of the policy announcement. Rather than waiting until the next day, the announcement occurs immediately after the conclusion of the meeting. In addition, minutes are now released two weeks after the meeting.
