| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | $70.50B | $77.71B | $68.36B |
| Imports - Y/Y | -5.5% | -6.2% | -7.3% |
| Exports - Y/Y | -7.5% | -6.2% | -8.8% |
Highlights
China's trade surplus in US dollar terms widened from US$68.36 billion in August to $77.71 billion in September. Exports fell 6.2 percent on the year in September after dropping 8.8 percent in August, while imports also fell 6.2 percent on the year after a previous decline of 7.3 percent.
The trade surplus reported today was above the consensus forecast of US$70.50 billion, exports fell by less than expected, and imports fell by more than expected. The China RPI fell from minus 34 to minus 41 and the RPI-P fell from minus 20 to minus 30, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in below consensus forecasts.
The trade surplus reported today was above the consensus forecast of US$70.50 billion, exports fell by less than expected, and imports fell by more than expected. The China RPI fell from minus 34 to minus 41 and the RPI-P fell from minus 20 to minus 30, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in below consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
China's trade surplus for September is expected to widen to US$70.50 billion versus August's lower-than-expected US$68.36 billion.
Definition
The Merchandise Trade Balance is the difference in value between imported and exported goods. Data are denominated both in U.S. dollars and renminbi. A positive number indicates a surplus meaning that more goods were exported than imported.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they also affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. However, the foreign exchange impact is muted here given that the currency is pegged to a basket of currencies and its value is determined daily by the government.
China's growth stems from its exports to the industrialized world. And in turn, global growth is dependent upon Chinese growth, especially since the financial woes of 2008.
Merchandise trade statistics are compiled and published by Customs General Administration (CGA) on a monthly basis. Preliminary estimates are available about 13 days after the reference month with details available within 25 days. Since 1980, the compilation of Customs statistics follows the concepts and definitions of the International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions. Data are released for total imports and exports in the Chinese currency and the U.S. dollar. There are five main categories each for primary and manufactured goods. Detailed information is available by category, destination country, foreign enterprises and domestic region to name a few. Geographically, the data covers the customs territory of the mainland China and excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
China's growth stems from its exports to the industrialized world. And in turn, global growth is dependent upon Chinese growth, especially since the financial woes of 2008.
Merchandise trade statistics are compiled and published by Customs General Administration (CGA) on a monthly basis. Preliminary estimates are available about 13 days after the reference month with details available within 25 days. Since 1980, the compilation of Customs statistics follows the concepts and definitions of the International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions. Data are released for total imports and exports in the Chinese currency and the U.S. dollar. There are five main categories each for primary and manufactured goods. Detailed information is available by category, destination country, foreign enterprises and domestic region to name a few. Geographically, the data covers the customs territory of the mainland China and excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
