| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.1% | 0.2% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
| Year over Year | -4.2% | -2.1% | -2.3% |
Highlights
Industrial production outperformed expectations in August, even as other sections of the Italian economy remain lacklustre.
Output rose by 0.2 percent on the month, beating the consensus estimate of a 0.1 percent decline, although July production was revised downward to show a 0.9 percent decline (originally reported as a 0.7 percent fall).
Year-over-year, output in August slumped by 4.2 percent, following a downwardly revised 2.3 percent fall in July (originally reported as a 2.1 percent slump).
The August improvement came despite a 2.2 percent monthly decline in energy output, with a 1.2 percent gain in consumer goods keeping output in positive territory.
Over the three months to August, output rose by 0.4 percent over the previous three-month period. If PMI surveys accurately reflect official data, output could improve in September, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 46.8 from 45.4, suggesting a more shallow rate of contraction. That may not translate into much of a lift to GDP, but could keep manufacturing output in the black in the third quarter. The Italian government recently reduced its forecast for 2023 growth to 0.8 percent from 1.0 percent previously.
Tuesday's data put the Italian RPI at minus 1 and the RPI-P at 5, suggesting that overall economic activity is performing within expectations.
Output rose by 0.2 percent on the month, beating the consensus estimate of a 0.1 percent decline, although July production was revised downward to show a 0.9 percent decline (originally reported as a 0.7 percent fall).
Year-over-year, output in August slumped by 4.2 percent, following a downwardly revised 2.3 percent fall in July (originally reported as a 2.1 percent slump).
The August improvement came despite a 2.2 percent monthly decline in energy output, with a 1.2 percent gain in consumer goods keeping output in positive territory.
Over the three months to August, output rose by 0.4 percent over the previous three-month period. If PMI surveys accurately reflect official data, output could improve in September, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 46.8 from 45.4, suggesting a more shallow rate of contraction. That may not translate into much of a lift to GDP, but could keep manufacturing output in the black in the third quarter. The Italian government recently reduced its forecast for 2023 growth to 0.8 percent from 1.0 percent previously.
Tuesday's data put the Italian RPI at minus 1 and the RPI-P at 5, suggesting that overall economic activity is performing within expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Output is seen dipping 0.1 percent on the month following a 0.7 percent drop in July.
Definition
Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Construction is excluded. Approximately 4,100 companies provide data on more than 8,000 monthly flows of production.
Description
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded from the data. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
