| Recent History | |||||||
| On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
| Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
| Apr-23 | 11.612 | 95.6% | 1.758 | 96.4% | 1.702 | 89.9% | 6.125 |
| May-23 | 11.617 | 96.6% | 1.955 | 104.6% | 1.946 | 101.7% | 6.291 |
| Jun-23 | 11.552 | 97.1% | 1.678 | 102.7% | 1.957 | 95.0% | 6.025 |
| Jul-23 | 11.204 | 98.2% | 1.613 | 91.4% | 1.722 | 94.4% | 6.007 |
| Aug-23 | 11.030 | 97.7% | 2.003 | 94.9% | 1.884 | 94.0% | 5.992 |
| Sep-23 | 11.094 | 97.8% | 2.206 | 106.1% | 1.663 | 89.4% | 5.989 |
| Oct-23 | 11.580 | 100.6% | - | - | - | - | 5.935 |
| Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
| Estimates | |||||
| As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| On Feed | Oct | 99.7% | 99.0% | 100.3% | 99.6% |
| Placements | Sep | 101.2% | 95.9% | 104.8% | 96.2% |
| Marketings | Sep | 90.4% | 89.5% | 91.5% | 104.0% |
Highlights
The Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of September at 106.1% of last year versus an average trade expectation of 101.2% and a range of expectations from 95.9% to 104.8%. September marketings for September came in at 89.4% versus 90.4% expected (range 89.5%-91.5%). Cattle on Feed supply as of October 1 was 100.6% of last year versus 99.7% expected (range 99.0% to 100.3%).
The report was negative across the board, with placements, marketings and on-feed all coming in at the bearish end of expectations. Placements and on feed came in above the high end of expectations, which indicates supply is increasing at a faster rate than expected. December cattle fell back to six-week lows ahead of the report, but we expect further losses given the negative report and the general weakness on the charts. Look for the market to open 100-200 lower on Monday, with an eventual target around 175.00.
The report was negative across the board, with placements, marketings and on-feed all coming in at the bearish end of expectations. Placements and on feed came in above the high end of expectations, which indicates supply is increasing at a faster rate than expected. December cattle fell back to six-week lows ahead of the report, but we expect further losses given the negative report and the general weakness on the charts. Look for the market to open 100-200 lower on Monday, with an eventual target around 175.00.
Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.
Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
