Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Year over Year | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
Highlights
The overall quarterly decline reflected contractions in a number of countries, notably Germany (0.1 percent), Ireland (1.8 percent), Austria (0.6 percent), and Estonia (0.2 percent) which saw a remarkable seventh successive drop. Spain (0.3 percent) posted moderately respectable growth but France (0.1 percent) only just kept its head above water and Italy (0.0 percent) stagnated.
In sum, the third quarter data mean that the Eurozone economy has been essentially flat since the third quarter of last year. Amongst the countries reporting today, only Austria and Estonia find themselves in recession but this could easily change this quarter when, on current trends, the region has a whole could post a second successive decline. Taken together with the sharp fall in October inflation just announced, the data latest increase the chances that key ECB interest rates have peaked. To this end, today's reports trim the Eurozone RPI to minus 15 and the RPI-P to minus 14, both measures showing overall economic activity lagging market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.