Previous | Consensus | Actual | |
---|---|---|---|
Claimant Count - M/M | 900 | ||
Claimant Count Unemployment Rate | 4.0% | ||
ILO Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | ||
Average Earnings - Y/Y | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% |
Highlights
Still, today's update will boost hopes that a loosening labour market is now beginning to apply some downside pressure on wage deals and that can only be good news for getting inflation back to target. As such, the latest data increase the chances of a steady vote at next month's BoE MPC meeting. More generally, they put the UK's RPI at minus 5 and the RPI-P at minus 10, both measures showing real economic activity running slightly behind market expectations.
Note that the remaining labour market data will be released on 24 October having been delayed due to an inadequate initial response to the survey.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Note that the remaining labour market data will be released on 24 October.
Definition
Description
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.