PreviousConsensusActual
Claimant Count - M/M900
Claimant Count Unemployment Rate4.0%
ILO Unemployment Rate4.3%
Average Earnings - Y/Y8.5%8.3%8.1%

Highlights

Wage growth slowed in the three months to August, and by slightly more than expected. At 8.1 percent, the annual headline rate was down from an unrevised 8.5 percent, making for the first deceleration since February and a 3-month low. However, it remains historically very high. Moreover, regular earnings held up rather better, dipping just 0.1 percentage point to 7.8 percent and so just a tick below the record high.

Still, today's update will boost hopes that a loosening labour market is now beginning to apply some downside pressure on wage deals and that can only be good news for getting inflation back to target. As such, the latest data increase the chances of a steady vote at next month's BoE MPC meeting. More generally, they put the UK's RPI at minus 5 and the RPI-P at minus 10, both measures showing real economic activity running slightly behind market expectations.

Note that the remaining labour market data will be released on 24 October having been delayed due to an inadequate initial response to the survey.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Earnings growth is expected to slow from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent in the three months to August.

Note that the remaining labour market data will be released on 24 October.

Definition

The Labour Market Report covers a number of key areas of the jobs market. Unemployment is updated on the basis of two separate surveys: the claimant count, which measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, and the more reliable but lagging International Labour Organization's (ILO) measure that excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are both looking and are available for work. Average earnings growth, a key determinant of inflation, is also updated.

Description

The labour market survey gives the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.

The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.

By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.
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