| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Prices - M/M | 0.5% | 0.4% to 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | -1.7% | -3.0% | -2.9% | ||
| Export Prices - M/M | 0.6% | 0.3% to 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | -4.1% | -5.5% | -5.7% |
Highlights
Imported inflation slowed down more than expected in September to a 0.1 percent monthly pace, below the 0.5 percent consensus in an Econoday survey, and even below the lowest forecast of 0.4 percent. On a year-over-year basis, however, the 1.7 percent decline was the smallest since a 1.1 percent decrease in February 2023.
Export prices, on the other hand, rose more than anticipated, at a monthly pace of 0.7 percent after 1.1 percent in August. Like import prices, the pace of decrease for export prices continued to slow, to a 4.1 percent year-over-year after contracting 5.7 percent the previous month.
Fuel import prices rose 4.4 percent on the month, half as much as in August, while nonfuel imports contracted at a steady pace of 0.2 percent. The indexes fell 8.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, from a year earlier.
On the export front, agricultural prices fell 1.1 percent and non-agricultural prices rose 1.0 percent, for 12-month decreases of 7.8 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.
Export prices, on the other hand, rose more than anticipated, at a monthly pace of 0.7 percent after 1.1 percent in August. Like import prices, the pace of decrease for export prices continued to slow, to a 4.1 percent year-over-year after contracting 5.7 percent the previous month.
Fuel import prices rose 4.4 percent on the month, half as much as in August, while nonfuel imports contracted at a steady pace of 0.2 percent. The indexes fell 8.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, from a year earlier.
On the export front, agricultural prices fell 1.1 percent and non-agricultural prices rose 1.0 percent, for 12-month decreases of 7.8 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices rose a higher-than-expected 0.5 percent in August which are the expectations for September. Export prices, which rose 1.3 percent in August and was much higher than expected, are expected to rise 0.6 percent. Data in this report have shown a reheating of pressures the past two months.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
