Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.2% | -0.5% to 2.0% | 1.2% | -2.1% |
Highlights
A relief for the factory sector, and the outlook for productivity throughout the economy, is a 0.9 pecent surge in orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft). This reverses two prior months of 0.4 percent declines and underscores the big positive in second-quarter GDP which, in the third estimate, wasn't consumer spending afterall but business spending instead (fixed nonresidential investment). Shipments for core capital goods in the first two months of the third quarter, up 0.7 percent for August but down 0.3 percent for July, point perhaps to modest strength in business spending for the quarter as a whole.
Up 0.4 percent in August, unfilled orders, boosted by aircraft, continue to point to strength ahead for the factory sector, including employment needed to work the backlogs down. Year-over-year, unfilled orders are up 6.5 percent versus only a 0.5 percent gain for new orders (unfilled orders for commercial aircraft are up 32.9 percent on the year). Total shipments rose 1.3 percent in August while inventories rose 0.3 percent.
These results are positive on net and help boost Econoday's Relative Performance Index which stands at 26 to indicate that US data are tangibly beating forecasts.