| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 91.2 | 91.0 to 91.3 | 90.8 | 91.3 |
Highlights
The NFIB small business optimism index is down 5 tenths to 90.8 in September after 91.3 in August. The reading is a little below the consensus of 91.2 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The NFIB reported noted that the index remains below its 49-year average of 98 for the 21st month in a row. The uncertainty index is up 2 points to 79 in September from August. Among survey respondents, 23 percent report that inflation"was their single most important problem in operating their business", the same as in August.
In September, 5 of 10 index components are up, 4 are down, and 1 is unchanged. Despite more components up than down, on net, declines outweighed increases. The overall tone for the numbers is for only minor changes, but the outlook for the near future is somewhat gloomier.
The two biggest negatives are from a 6 point decrease in expectations for the economy to improve to minus 43 percent and a 4 point decrease in credit conditions to minus 10 percent.
The components that register an increase are mostly small 1 point gains. The largest improvement is a 3 point rise to 43 percent for current job openings. Plans to increase employment are up only 1 point to 18 percent.
In September, 5 of 10 index components are up, 4 are down, and 1 is unchanged. Despite more components up than down, on net, declines outweighed increases. The overall tone for the numbers is for only minor changes, but the outlook for the near future is somewhat gloomier.
The two biggest negatives are from a 6 point decrease in expectations for the economy to improve to minus 43 percent and a 4 point decrease in credit conditions to minus 10 percent.
The components that register an increase are mostly small 1 point gains. The largest improvement is a 3 point rise to 43 percent for current job openings. Plans to increase employment are up only 1 point to 18 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The small business optimism index has been below the historical average of 98 for 20 months in a row. September's consensus is 91.2 versus 91.3 in August.
Definition
The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
Description
Small businesses are responsible for a majority of new job creation and the NFIB focuses on this sector of the economy. The direction of the health of small businesses can portend changes in the stock market - especially small caps.
