Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Balance | $-85.5B | $-166.0B to $-16.2B | $-170.9B | $89.3B |
Highlights
The latest monthly deficit reflected budget outlays at $638.455 billion compared with $917.489 billion in September of last year, while receipts were $467.473 billion compared with $487.723 billion last year.
For the complete fiscal year 2023 which ended in September, the deficit was $1.695 trillion vs. $1.375 trillion for all of fiscal 2022.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Note that September's statement, the last of the fiscal year, has been delayed.
Definition
Description
The Federal government borrows money through the issuance of Treasury securities; so higher deficits mean a larger supply of securities and (again, assuming constant demand) lower prices. With notes and bonds, lower prices are equated with higher yields, so in this example, the government borrows money at higher interest rates. That impact ripples across all other interest rate-bearing securities and creates a higher interest-rate environment for stocks, which is bearish.
In addition to following the trend in the budget deficit or surplus, investors can gain valuable insight to the state of the economy by looking at the government's tax receipts. Higher tax receipts lead to an improved deficit situation when economic conditions are strong; conversely, lower tax receipts reflect a sluggish economic environment.