September's CBI's distributive trades survey found sales falling further on the year but by much less than expected. At minus 14 percent, the headline balance was more than 20 percentage points above the market consensus and up from August's very weak minus 45 percent. Even so, while this was the best print since June, it was still the fifth successive sub-zero outturn. Moreover, with actual sales falling 1.6 percent on the month a year ago, today's data should imply a generally poor period for retailers.

Although the September data boost the UK's RPI to minus 33 and the RPI-P to minus 25, both measures show overall economic activity continuing to fall short of market expectations.

Having slumped in August, the headline balance is seen rising to a still historically weak minus 35 percent in September.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.