Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.3% | -0.8% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
Year over Year | -3.9% | -5.3% | -3.8% |
Highlights
Market momentum has slowed markedly in recent months on the back of rising mortgage rates and renting costs. Approvals were down almost 10 percent in July and many would-be buyers are now on hold. Prospective sellers are also waiting for conditions to improve so supply side factors remain broadly supportive but near-term at least, prices look likely to slide further.
In terms of the broader picture, today's update puts the UK's ECDI at minus 41 and the ECDI-P at minus 53, both measures showing a significant degree of underperformance that will add to the BoE MPC's policy dilemma later this month.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Although the Nationwide data are calculated similar to the Halifax method Nationwide substantially updated their system in 1993 following the publication of the 1991 census data. These improvements mean that Nationwide's system is more robust to lower sample sizes because it better identifies and tracks representative house prices. Historically, the data go back to 1952 on a quarterly basis and 1991 on a monthly basis.
Over long periods the Halifax and Nationwide series of house prices tend to follow similar patterns. This stems from both Nationwide and Halifax using similar statistical techniques to produce their prices. Nationwide's average price differs because the representative property tracked is different in make up to that of Halifax.