Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.5% | 1.0% |
Year over Year | 4.9% | 4.9% |
Highlights
A 0.5 percent monthly decline in the consumer price index (steeper than the consensus estimate of a 0.2 percent decline) put the annual rate at 4.9 percent, unchanged from the August pace, according the flash estimate released on Friday.
That takes the RPI to minus 26 from minus 10 previously, while the RPI-P moved to minus 20 from minus 15 previously.
Flash HICP declined by 0.6 percent versus July, bringing the annual rate to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent, still close to three times the European Central Bank's 2 percent target, despite the deceleration.
Food price inflation decelerated to an annual rate of 9.6 percent from 11.2 percent in August, but energy prices picked up in line with the recent rally in crude oil prices, rising by 11.5 percent from 6.8 percent in August. Service price inflation eased to an annual rate of 2.8 percent from 3.0 percent a month earlier, which could come as a relief to rate setters at the European Central Bank.
The data come a day after German HICP fell to an annual rate of 4.3 percent in September from 6.4 percent a month earlier, the slowest pace since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Eurozone flash inflation data are due later on Friday.
Core inflation is expected to remain on a downward path across the Eurozone, although headline inflation may be more stubborn, particularly after the rally in crude oil prices since the end of June. That raises questions over whether the ECB is prepared to look through a prospective increase in broader inflation when considering its next move in interest rates.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.