| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 97 | 99 | 96 | 97 |
Highlights
The French manufacturing climate indicator recovered modestly to 99 in September from an upwardly revised 97 in August (initially reported as 96), outpacing the consensus forecast of 97.
That puts the French RPI at 4, down from 11 previously, but lifts the RPI-P from minus 9 to 1. Overall, the economy is performing much as expected.
Over the broader economy, the business climate indicator stabilised at 100, after the August result was revised up by 1 point from the initially reported 99.
The French economy has fared better than most of other large eurozone nations, with gross domestic product rising by 0.5 percent in the second quarter, well outpacing the flat performance in Germany and the 0.4 percent slump in Italy.
Banque de France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, suggested he may not favour tighter policy, telling French television earlier this week that interest rates could remain at current levels for as long as it takes to tame inflation.
The markets await a lecture from ECB President Christine Lagarde later Thursday and a speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane in New York in the evening for clues about the governing council's next move on interest rates.
That puts the French RPI at 4, down from 11 previously, but lifts the RPI-P from minus 9 to 1. Overall, the economy is performing much as expected.
Over the broader economy, the business climate indicator stabilised at 100, after the August result was revised up by 1 point from the initially reported 99.
The French economy has fared better than most of other large eurozone nations, with gross domestic product rising by 0.5 percent in the second quarter, well outpacing the flat performance in Germany and the 0.4 percent slump in Italy.
Banque de France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, suggested he may not favour tighter policy, telling French television earlier this week that interest rates could remain at current levels for as long as it takes to tame inflation.
The markets await a lecture from ECB President Christine Lagarde later Thursday and a speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane in New York in the evening for clues about the governing council's next move on interest rates.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sentiment is seen creeping just marginally firmer to 97.
Definition
INSEE is France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. INSEE's business climate indicator aims to summarise the mood of French business leaders. The survey asks questions about output, orders and inventories and expectations for future business. These are synthesised into an overall index of sentiment, adjusted so that the long-run average is 100. The main focus is the manufacturing sector but the survey also provides separate confidence measures for construction, retail trade and services on a monthly basis and for wholesale trade every other month.
Description
If you are looking for clues on French business sentiment, this survey would be a good starting point. The indicator is based on a survey that asks business leaders about their expectations for new orders and their overall impressions of the economy. The results are a diffusion index that reflects the difference between positive and negative responses as a percentage of the total number of answers.
