ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month1.0%1.0%1.0%
Year over Year4.8%4.9%4.8%

Highlights

Consumer prices rose by a monthly 1.0 percent in August, confirming the preliminary estimate released late last month. That's up sharply from the 0.1 percent rise in July (unrevised from the previously reported outcome).

That took the annual inflation to 4.9 percent, a touch higher than the preliminary estimate of 4.8 percent, up from 4.3 percent in July.

The RPI for French CPI hit plus 11, while the RPI-P remained within consensus at minus 9.

Core inflation declined to an annual rate of 4.6 percent from 5.0 percent in July.

The harmonised consumer price index tracked by the European Central Bank rose by 1.1 percent in August (matching the preliminary estimate), taking the annual rate of HICP to 5.7 percent, also in line with data released earlier this month, up from the 5.1 percent increase in July.

It's unclear whether this latest data could affect revisions of Eurozone HICP, which stabilised at an annual rate of 5.3 percent last month after falling by 0.1 percent between July and August. Eurostat will release updated August inflation data on Tuesday.

ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that interest rates could remain at current levels after announcing a 25-basis point increase in the Bank's main benchmarks on Thursday. However, she did briefly touch upon the recent rise in commodities prices at the end of her press briefing, suggesting the governing council is bracing for challenges in the battle to bring inflation to target. That raises questions over whether the ECB is prepared to look through any future rise in headline inflation when considering its next moves.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected to the provisional data leaving prices rising 1.0 percent on the month and a yearly inflation rate of 4.8 percent, up from July's final 4.3 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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