Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Year over Year | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
Highlights
Household spending was up 0.5 percent on the quarter after a 0.7 percent gain while gross fixed capital formation rose 0.8 percent following a 2.5 percent bounce. Within the latter, business investment climbed a very solid 4.1 percent after a 4.0 percent increase. At the same time, government consumption (2.5 percent) easily more than reversed the previous period's fall (1.2 percent) but business inventories (excluding alignment and balancing) subtracted 0.2 percentage points.
Consequently, growth would have been a good deal stronger but for net foreign trade which subtracted a full percentage point as a 0.9 percent drop in exports was compounded by a 2.2 percent increase in imports.
The latest data re-affirm that the UK easily avoided recession in the first half of the year and also show a better balance to growth. In particular, the buoyancy of business investment is reassuring. However, with July GDP contracting some 0.5 percent on the month and the September PMI composite output sliding to a lowly 46.8, a downturn in the current half is a very real possibility. To this end, at minus 30 and minus 18 respectively, the UK's RPI and RPI-P show overall economic activity also still running behind market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if the UK reports that the consumer price index has risen more than the Bank of England's 2 percent inflation target, demand for sterling could decline. Similarly, when the Bank of England lowers interest rates, the pound sterling weakens. (Currency traders also watch the interest rate spread between countries.)