Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Change | 0bp | 0bp | 0bp |
Level | 4.10% | 4.10% | 4.10% |
Highlights
Today's meeting was the last before Governor Philip Lowe's six-year term expires. His replacement, Deputy Governor Michele Bullock, will begin her term just before the next meeting in early October. Her long experience at the RBA suggests she will deliver policy and governance continuity in coming months ahead of changes to the frequency and timing of policy meetings in 2024.
In the statement accompanying today's decision, officials judge that recent data show that inflation"has passed its peak" but they reiterate that it is"still too high and will remain so for some time yet". They note upside risks to services price inflation and the potential for high inflation expectations to become entrenched.
Officials also remain concerned about risks to the growth outlook associated with the substantial policy tightening they have already implemented over the last 18 months. They again note that the economy is currently growing below its trend rate and is expected to do so"for a while".
Reflecting this assessment, officials again reached the conclusion they reached last month that it is appropriate to leave policy rates on hold to"provide further time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook". They also reiterated that"some further tightening of monetary policy may be required"to return inflation to its target range in a reasonable timeframe" and reaffirmed that they"will do what is necessary to achieve that", depending on incoming data.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The RBA is unique among the central banks - it has two boards with complementary responsibilities. The Reserve Bank Board is responsible for monetary policy and overall financial system stability. The Payments System Board has specific responsibility for the safety and efficiency of the payments system.
The RBA sets an interest rate at which it lends to financial institutions. This interest rate then affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the price of financial assets, such as bonds and shares, and the exchange rate, which affect consumer and business demand in a variety of ways. Lowering or raising interest rates affects spending in the economy.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.