Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter [Adjusted] | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | |
Year over Year [Not Adjusted] | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.5% |
Highlights
Quarterly stagnation masked a 0.4 percent gain in household spending and reflected more a hefty 3.7 percent decline in investment in equipment and software. Construction was also down 0.8 percent although government consumption edged 0.1 percent firmer. Exports of goods (excluding valuables) shrank 1.2 percent but net foreign trade here still made a positive contribution as their import counterpart plummeted fully 7.2 percent. The services side held up much better with exports rising 2.6 percent and imports 2.3 percent.
In terms of output, manufacturing did most of the damage, contracting 2.9 percent. By contrast, most other sectors recorded gains, notably accommodation and food (5.3 percent), trade (2.1 percent), and health and social activities (0.8 percent).
In sum, today's update confirms a significant slowdown in overall growth but still shows significant strength in the service sector. In itself, the report is unlikely to impact the SNB which remains focussed on keeping inflation around the 2 percent mark. To this end, the policy decision due later this month remains uncertain even with the Swiss ECDI (minus 25) and the ECDI-P (minus 30) still languishing quite deep in negative surprise territory.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.