Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
Year over Year | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
Highlights
Domestic prices were flat on the month, trimming their yearly rate from 2.3 percent to 2.2 percent. However, import prices climbed 0.8 percent to boost their annual rate from minus 0.6 percent to minus 0.3 percent.
Within the CPI, the main upward pressure came from petroleum products where prices rose a monthly 5.8 percent and alone added nearly 0.2 percentage points. A spike in clothing and footwear (3.2 percent) reflected seasonal factors but both household energy (0.5 percent) and other goods and services (0.5 percent) also posted solid gains. Partial offsets came from transport (minus 0.4 percent) and recreation and culture (minus 0.3 percent). As a result, core prices (excluding unprocessed food and energy) edged just 0.1 percent firmer, reducing the annual underlying rate from 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent, matching its weakest mark since March 2022.
Overall, the SNB should be quite happy with today's data. Both headline and core inflation have been below 2 percent since June and with the real economy clearly sluggish, pressure for another policy tightening this month is gradually diminishing. The Swiss ECDI now stands at minus 23 and ECDI-P at minus 34, both gauges signalling ongoing underperformance by economic activity in general.