Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Rate | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% |
Highlights
The quarterly improvement may bring little cheer to the Italian government, as monthly data already released showed joblessness rising to 7.6 percent in July from 7.5 percent in June. This broke a multi-month run of declines. Total employment fell by 73,000 at the start of the third quarter, while the employment rate declined slightly to 61.3 percent.
Despite the second quarter decline, the disappointing July data raise Italy's stake in Thursday's European Central Bank decision even further, particularly after revised data showed a higher-than-initially reported 0.4 percent contraction in second quarter GDP.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has criticized the ECB for its"simplistic" approach to hiking interest rates, warning that tighter policy could do more harm than good. Economists expect the governing council to leave its main lending rates unchanged, but recent public statements from more hawkish members of the rate-setting body suggest some rather lively discussions on Thursday. There are also questions over Italy's space for fiscal maneuverability, given its high debt-to-GDP ratio and challenges in doling out Next Generation EU funds.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall.