WHEAT:
The USDA grain stocks report showed US wheat stocks on September 1st at 1.780 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 1.770 billion and a range of expectations from 1.694 to 1.852 billion. Last year, September 1st stocks were 1.778 billion. The Small Grains report put US all wheat production for 2023/24 at 1.812 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 1.732 billion (range 1.689-1.757 billion). This is up from the August estimate of 1.734 billion. All winter wheat production came in at 1.248 billion bushels versus 1.226 billion expected (range 1.207-1.245). This was up from 1.227 billion in August. Hard red winter wheat production was 601 million versus 584 million expected (range 570-595). Soft red production was 449 million versus 440 million expected (range 425-450). White winter wheat production was 198 million versus 202 million expected (range 196-212). Other spring wheat production was 505 million versus 448 million expected (range 425-467). Durum production was 59 million versus 57 million expected (range 54-63).

PRICE OUTLOOK: Wheat stocks came in just above guesses, and we would consider the numbers neutral, but the production numbers were bearish. On-farm stocks were 598 million bushels, up just slightly from last September. Off-farm stocks were 1.18 billion bushels and slightly down from a year ago. All wheat and all winter wheat production were higher than expected and above the highest guesses. Hard red and soft red wheat were also above the highest guesses, which confirmed reports of better yields in the Plains and eastern soft wheat areas, even after the dry mid-season weather. Spring wheat production was also raised more than expected and was well above its highest guess. Now we know why wheat prices have been so extraordinarily weak lately, as production in just about every category was higher than expected. New contract lows were seen today in Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City wheat, and given the fading export paces, this report revives the bearish outlook.

This full-text report presents data on the acreage, area planted and harvested, yield and production of wheat, oats, barley, and rye, by state and U.S.; also wheat production by class. This resource is a supplement to Crop Production.

This report acts as a final wrap-up for the current year’s production for the small grains (wheat, barley, oats and rye). It includes state-by-state breakdowns, as well as by the different classes of wheat (winter, spring, Durum). The data is based on farm operator surveys of acreage, yield and production.

Analysts will be on the watch to see if there are any dramatic changes from previous estimates, particularly spring wheat, as that could have an impact on price directions. Any changes to the production estimates will be reflected in the USDA’s October Supply/Demand (WASDE) report.

This data is subject to revision in the USDA Crop Production Annual Summary, which is released in January.