Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
Highlights
The first look at the GDP expenditure components revealed another soft period for household consumption which was unchanged on the quarter, in line with its first quarter performance. Gross fixed capital formation rose 0.3 percent for a second quarter running and current government spending increased 0.2 percent. Business inventories had a positive impact, boosting growth by 0.4 percentage points but this was fully offset by net foreign trade as exports fell 0.7 percent and imports edged up 0.1 percent.
Regionally, the update confirmed that the quarterly increase in total output masked a (steeper revised) 0.4 percent contraction in Italy and stagnation in Germany. Rather, the advance came largely courtesy of France (unrevised 0.5 percent) - where the rate would have been negative but for net exports and inventories - and Spain (unrevised 0.4 percent). Elsewhere, growth in Ireland, previously put at some 3.3 percent, was slashed to just 0.5 percent leaving Lithuania (2.9 percent), Slovenia (1.4 percent) and Greece (1.3 percent) as the best performing member states. By contrast, there were declines in a number of countries, including the Netherlands (0.3 percent) which joined Estonia (minus 0.2 percent) in recession.
The second quarter update is probably too historic to have much impact on next week's ECB meeting. Still, it underlines the softness of private sector domestic demand and may be used by the doves as additional ammunition as they call for no change in key interest rates. To this end, today's report puts the Eurozone ECDI at minus 10 and the ECDI-P at minus 26 showing overall economic activity still lagging well behind market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both typically lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures can put downside pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if inflation remains above the ECB’s near-2 percent target for long enough, worries about the impact of lost competitiveness on the merchandise trade balance could prompt investors to switch to an alternative currency.