Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Public Sector Net Borrowing | £9.8B | £10.76B | £3.48B | £-1.20B |
Ex-Public Sector Banks | £10.6B | £11.58B | £4.30B | £-0.38B |
Highlights
Today's data lift the UK RPI to minus 13 from minus 17 previously, while the RPI-P slips from 10 to 3.
July finances (ex public sector banks) were revised to a £383 million surplus from the £4.30 billion shortfall reported last month.
Headline public sector borrowing (PSNB) hit £10.8 billion in August, compared to the consensus forecast of £9.8 billion, and £7.3 billion a year earlier. July was revised to a surplus of £1.2 billion, compared to the initially reported £3.48 billion shortfall.
Self-assessment tax receipts for July and August (including payments received after the 31 July deadline) rose by £1.7 billion over the same period of 2022 to £13.3 billion, reflecting strong wage growth over the past year. That exceeds the £12.4 billion forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Borrowing over the fiscal year that began in April rose by 38 percent to £69.6 billion. However, the year-to-date total is £11.4 billion below the £81.0 billion forecast by the OBR, potentially allowing the Treasury to consider the tax relief demanded by some quarters of the ruling Conservative Party ahead of an election likely to take place next year. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will issue a fiscal policy statement on 22 November.
Public sector net debt rose to 98.8 percent of gross domestic production from 96.5 percent in July of 2022, continuing at levels last seen in the early 1960's, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Interest payable on central government debt fell by £3.1 billion from August of 2022 to £5.6 billion.
Debt payments could continue to rise if the Bank of England extends its programme of interest rate hikes. The Bank had been widely expected to announce a 25 basis point increase in Bank Rate to 5.5 percent later on Thursday, but swaps markets now point to a slightly-better-than even probability of a pause after yesterday's unexpected fall in August inflation to 6.7 percent from 6.8 percent in July.